Friday Update November 26, 2021
I ate too much. So much good food, family time, our son behaved himself. Thankful for all that and for you guys that read these brain dumps.
Also thankful for owning a home at this point as there are now only 361 single family homes on the market. Month to date we have 1,054 sales meaning our supply is now around 8-9 days worth. Pitiful.
Median sold price month to date is at $450,000 and not softening going into the winter. At or below the median we have 153 homes total. I just read an article on CNBC last night talking about how unseasonably busy the real estate market is across the country. I'd like to think it's because I'm such a bad ass realtor but I think the truth is people are really feeling the inflation and want to get into a solid asset, like a house. You must have been reading my rants people, good work.
Today the markets are in a panic. How do I say this without getting this blog censored. That one thing we've all been arguing about for the last couple of years yea? It's new cousin showed up and according to the chief scientific guessers they don't know if this cousin is more or less bad ass than the rest of the family. We had rates on the 10 year at close to 1.7% Wednesday and we're at 1.49% now. That is a pretty sudden fear based move that one would be wise to capitalize on. Fear= opportunity.
I'm gonna go on a bit of rant here about the predictability of this dickhead's arrival and its significance to our market. First of all this family that this cousin is from is kind of a bunch of dickheads to begin with. They tend to surprise us with their everchanging apperances. They show up places uninvited. What should not surprise us is our parents' (the Fed) protocol for dealing with this family.
Everytime a new cousin comes to town we have the guys and gals that make the rules tell us to stay home. Some of my friends in other places have had to stay home for roughly the last month and they can't go out and play between 10pm and 5am. Other places can't play at all. And this was before the cousin showed up. Now with this new cousin's arrival I would not be surprised one tiny bit if our parents told us that our economy is in jeopardy unless we do everything in our power to isolate this cousin. We might well live through a piss poorly coordinated series of partial lockdowns where the small businesses are closed but the lines at Costco are 20 deep. Maybe we will run out of toilet paper again. Regardless this opens the door for our parents to use an allowance as a way to calm us all down.
Little do we know that by handing out free money and not letting us work our parents are not only destroying our work ethic but also the purchasing power of the money itself.
So basically in a nutshell if our parents make a huge fuss out of this cousins arrival you can expect interest rates to drop, buying activity to pick back up, and next Spring might get as stupid as last Spring except with median pricing over $500,000 instread of $410,000.
The velocity of money may be forced to further slow down between our parents keeping us home and by the creation of more money in general. That slowdown however does not seem to impact the housing market one bit as money rushes into it in times like these.
Moderna stock is up 22% today as a bunch of sadists profit from this madness. Oil is down 12% today. Lumber still elevated at just below $800. Good labor is harder to find than maybe ever.
Long story short is that there's always a dark night before the bright of day. And the people leading this world might well be vampires.