Friday Update March 12, 2021

This market is so stupid and so busy that I won't have a chance to rant today.  Whatever I wrote the last few months is still true.  Not enough inventory, a surplus of buyers, seller's market 100% through and through.  A "good deal" right now might be 10-12% above listing price on average.  With an appraisal gap.  Without an inspection.  Not cool with that?  That's fine, someone else is.

Today we have 216 single family homes on the market locally.  That's less than last week by a pretty decent number.  Maybe people are holding off on listing due to the snowstorm.  Inventory is stuck in a range where we basically don't have any.

Interest rates continuing their bumpy ride up.  As I'm writing this the yield on 10 year treasury notes is about 1.63% which is up from about .9% at the beginning of the year.  The effect on mortgage rates is that VA/FHA mortgages are now around 3% rather than closer to 2%.  Refinances are down by 43% according to CNBC vs a few months ago.

At some point there will be forebearances that fail, at some point our inventory will bounce, maybe rates will continue to go up but if the solution for every big problem is to print more money then I'll take my very limited money and bet it on real estate for the long term.  Seems legit.

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